Analysts believe Catalonia crisis could be decisive for government formation in Spain – Jornal Económico

"The Spanish party system was a two-party system, in which the main right party and the main left party were able to form a majority on their own or with the support of some peripheral forces in the various autonomies," recalled the Institute's researcher. Portuguese International Relations (IPRI) Carlos Gaspar.

However, "this system ended the rise of Somos, Ciudadanos and now also the Vox", Lusa said, stating that "the system became multiparty".

The new outlook has increased the “confrontation between political parties” to “fear [dos partidos] of losing their own political space, ”explained researcher at the Royal Spanish Institute El Cano Patrícia Lisa.

“There is a big competition within the respective political spaces. And in that sense, we are seeing a succession of crossed vetoes and a sharp confrontational tone, ”he added.

According to this researcher, the difficulties that the political system [espanhol] is having come from the effects of the crisis [económica do início da década] and is also visible in other European states, ”including Portugal.

Less than a week from the Spanish parliamentary elections – which will take place next Sunday – the possibility of reaching an understanding between parties and, consequently, the formation of a government that will carry out the mandate to the end seems to be helped mainly by problems in Catalonia.

"Apparently, these events have a certain impact on voting trends," admitted Professor of European Studies José Pedro Fernandes, arguing that "these are events that mobilize much, for and against, the Spanish population."

It is inevitable that the question of Catalonia – which saw several demonstrations and episodes of violence taking shape after the condemnation of the main leaders of Catalan independence for imprisonment – had an impact on the election outcome, he said.

“We see the concern of the parties, the PSOE and the Government to want to show a firm image, to deal with Catalonia in order to avoid losing ground especially to the more center-center, right-wing voters, where such fragility would obviously fall greatly. badly, ”added José Pedro Fernandes.

Claiming to believe that it will again be difficult to form a coalition to govern with the results of the November 10 elections, the analyst said he considered that Catalonia's nationalist issue has already made a winner: the far-right party Vox.

“Catalonia's own nationalism ends up feeding this more nationalistic Spanish side. And Vox is probably the main winner of that, ”he said.

A rise that, according to the analyst, became possible “about a decade ago, and especially since the Eurozone crisis” because “a political fragmentation that allows this radicalization to the far right” has been witnessed.

For José Pedro Fernandes, political stability in Spain does not seem at all guaranteed.

"Except for some change in party alignment that may come later, the scenario does not seem to me very encouraging from the point of view of these elections being clear towards the formation of a stable Government," he admitted.

Still, he believes that these elections must result in a government that lasts.

"There may be a chance here, after all, of some party change, some greater flexibility, eventually of the We Can, to support a PSOE Government, especially even with some fear of opening the door to the far right parties", he said, acknowledging that the problems in Catalonia "were not generally good" for the PSOE.

Carlos Gaspar also considers that the Catalonia crisis “may show that the price of a new failure [num entendimento para Governar] it's too loud. ”

For the IPRI board member, the crisis “may force the PSOE and Ciudadanos to understand each other, as it is the parties that have the strongest common positions on all issues that are relevant to Spanish politics, which are the unity of the state, the question of Catalonia, the monarchy, the question of the regime and European integration ”.

And since “the PSOE and Ciudadanos have very similar and conciliatory positions on all these issues, the numbers from the outset give them the possibility to make a parliamentary majority and a coalition government and to have for the first time a true power-sharing. ”He defended.

“I think it can be said that on Wednesday [eleição] it is time and there are, especially because of the Catalonia issue, new conditions for a coalition, ”he said.

The election campaign officially began on Friday, although all parties have been trying to win votes since late September, when the King of Spain found the lack of support for investing a socialist minority executive.

In the legislatures of April 28, the PSOE obtained 123 deputies (28.68% of the votes), the PP 66 (16.70%), slightly ahead of Ciudadanos, with 57 (15.86%).

The Unidas Somos coalition (which includes Somos) obtained 42 parliamentary seats (14.31%) and Vox 24 (10.26%).

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