More percentage, more votes, more territory, better voting in 'enemy' territories, better performance of the supporters who competed for other public positions are what Jair Bolsonaro counts on to present himself to the second round of the Brazilian presidential elections, after having reached more of 46% of the votes.
On the other hand, Fernando Haddad had fewer votes (28.9%), less deployment in the regions he has controlled in the last 16 years, and some of his candidates (former President Dilma Rousseff included) were depressed.
This is the basis of the departure for the second round, which is predicted hard, verbally violent and even more extreme than the first. And yet, many analysts say, Haddad's PT must shiver that path and reposition itself to the center. Only in this way, they say, will it be possible for the party to aggregate, on the one hand, the voters of the defeated candidates – at least those of the leftist parties – and, on the other, to try to convince at least part of the 30% of the electorate that did not vote although participation is mandatory) or voted null or void.
In any case, all converge in the opinion that PT's work is Herculean – and they have against it, moreover, the statistics: in the recent history of the Brazilian presidential elections, never a candidate who has won the first round was defeated in the second – that is, the turnaround with which Mário Soares defeated Freitas do Amaral in 1986 never happened on the other side of the ocean.
Late on Sunday night, Bolsonaro's PSL party promised a stronger pulse in the second round campaign. "It's serious now," they said. But the truth is that in the victory speech, Bolsonaro was concerned not to exceed himself and seemed slightly concerned to call himself the center of the political spectrum.
In an unexpected live broadcast on Facebook – someone claimed he might be preparing an attack on his life if it appeared in public – along with economist Paulo Guedes, said that if elected, it will unite the country. "The thanks I give to all Brazilians," he said.
"We have everything to be a great nation. We have to unite our people, unite the shards made us the left government in the past. […] Let's unite our people. United, we will be a great nation. Nobody has the potential we have, "he added.
On the other side, Haddad also celebrated the passage to the second round, but his capital of confidence was exhausted. He said he had already spoken to some of the candidates who did not make it to the second round – among them Ciro Gomes (who surpassed 12%) and Marina Silva (who was only 1%) in an attempt to organize a kind of leftist platform could present himself to the second round as an alternative to Bolsonaro.
"We want to unite the democrats of Brazil, we want to unite the people who have attention to the poorest of this very unequal country. We want a broad project for Brazil that is deeply democratic, but also that it seeks tireless social justice, "Haddad said.
The strategy is this and arithmetic informs that a victory of the left is still possible, but no commentator can admit as reasonable this hypothesis.