Brexit to cause 'breakdown' of 15% in Portuguese exports, estimates CIP – The Economic Journal

Brexit to cause 'breakdown' of 15% in Portuguese exports, estimates CIP - The Economic Journal


A study, promoted by CIP and carried out by Ernst & Young – Augusto Mateus & Associados experts, reveals that Brexit may have, in the most optimistic scenario, a negative impact of 15% on Portuguese exports to the United Kingdom. However, potential losses from the UK's exit from the European Union (EU) may reach 26% if the negotiations end without agreement.

Brexit is, according to the study's authors, a "negative sum game", but the consequences and impacts of the UK's separation from the EU will be felt asymmetrically, and this will be a long-lasting process. This will lead, according to the study, to "a reconfiguration of the European internal market, with consequences and challenges for all the economies globally considered, but with specific peculiarities in each country".

The departure of the United Kingdom from the EU "constitutes a process of deconstruction of long and deep economic integration with relevant procedural difficulties, given the inexistence of similar experiences, and with consequences that can be poorly evaluated, given the lack of awareness of the effective size of many mechanisms for the transmission of their economic and social effects, "reads the study report.

The sectors of computer, electronic and optical products; electrical equipment and motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers are expected to experience the impact of Brexit more intensively. Already the products of areas such as forestry, forestry; fishing; aquaculture, among others, are among the most resilient to the negative effects of Brexit.

The authors of the study therefore recommend to Portuguese entrepreneurs a proactive effort to value the United Kingdom as Portugal's economic partner and, on the other hand, to diversify the economic relationship with new economies.

The United Kingdom is the leading destination market for Portuguese exports of services and the fourth leading destination for Portuguese exports of goods.



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