“Obtaining the majority for the PS dropped 5% from 44% to 39%. It is the most profound alteration of the Portuguese political system since 1974, ”said Oliveira e Costa, speaking to Lusa.
According to the Eurosondagem director's thesis, the lower bar for the absolute majority of the PS may imply a right-wing party reconfiguration.
"If this my thesis is confirmed, as confirmed by past theses, it may bring changes in party reconfiguration in Portugal, especially on the right," he argued.
Oliveira e Costa concluded that “in addition to the result of the most voted party, the difference between the second party counts even more”. "It is also relevant the evolution of the Portuguese party system, which always oscillated between four parties (PS, PPD, PCP and CDS) and five with the MDP, then the PRD, and later the BE," he said.
"Now it will go to six with the PAN and, despite being one of the most resilient in Europe, it is always evolving," he summarizes, in an article published today in Público.
Regarding the legislatures in October, Rui Oliveira Costa points out "a new framework".
The politologist notes that, "according to average polls, the other parties / whites and nulls double from 6% to 12% and the difference from the second party is at least 15%."
"The right wing struggle in 2019 is not to have 116 deputies to govern, but 78 to prevent the (highly unlikely) hypothesis of a constitutional revision without their participation," he argued.
For Rui Oliveira Costa, “the change is profound”.
At this juncture, he said to Lusa, the implications should be bigger on the right, but in structural terms they could affect any party that is in the same circumstances.