Examples of change and stability – The Economic Journal

Examples of change and stability - The Economic Journal


About a year after the legislative elections scheduled for September or October 2019, Aximage today released a poll in which the PS leads the voting intentions with 38.9%, followed by the PSD with 24%, the CDS-PP with 9 , 2%, BE with 9.1% and CDU with 7.4%. Will these numbers continue to remain in the next 12 months, until confirmation at the polling stations? In the recent past there are examples of change and stability.

In October 2014, for example, an Aximage survey indicated 40.4% of PS intentions, ahead of PSD with 27.5%, CDU with 9.2%, BE with 7.7% and of CDS-PP with 6.1%. The coalition Government PSD / CDS-PP was in office, while the PS was still led by António José Seguro (a month later was overthrown by António Costa, via extraordinary direct elections). In the legislative elections of 2015, however, the PSD / CDS-PP coalition obtained 38.5% of the votes, ahead of the PS with 32.3%, the BE with 10.1% and the CDU with 8.2%. That is, in the last 12 months of the legislature a considerable change occurred.

Further back in time, in June 2010, a survey of Aximage placed the PSD in the lead with 33.9% of the voting intentions, followed by PS with 32.8%, CDU with 10.6% the BE with 10.4% and the CDS-PP with 7.9%. This is a different case, since it was not anticipated that the second government of José Sócrates would be dropped and the convocation of legislative elections in June 2011. The pre-bankruptcy situation and the demand for financial bailout evidently had a great impact: the PSD obtained 38.6% of the votes, while the PS had 28%, the CDS-PP with 11.7%, the CDU with 7.9% and the BE with 5.1%. In just 12 months, the PS, CDU and BE lost many votes (or unconfirmed intentions).

Conversely, the September 2008 Marktest survey produced results almost identical to those of the next year's legislative elections. The PS led the voting intentions with 36.1%, followed by the PSD with 29.3%, the CDU with 12.6%, the BE with 10.9% and the CDS-PP with 7.1%. José Sócrates's first government had an absolute majority and sought re-election, but it fell short of this goal: the PS won 36.5% of the votes, ahead of the PSD with 29.1%, the CDS-PP with 10 , 4%, BE with 9.8% and CDU with 7.8%. The only notable discrepancy between the poll and the election result was in the CDU and CDS-PP votes, a recurring phenomenon in recent decades (CDS-PP has almost always had more votes in elections than voting intentions in polls).



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