Goldman Sachs warns of possible recession with rising trade tensions – The Economic Journal


Goldman Sachs economists fear that rising trade tensions between the United States and China could lead to a recession. The bank does not expect a trade deal to be reached between the two largest economies in the world ahead of the US presidential election in 2020, news agency Reuters reported on Monday.

"We expect tariffs targeting the $ 300 billion (about $ 268 billion) of other US and Chinese imports to take effect," the bank said in a note sent to its customers on Sunday.

US President Donald Trump announced on August 1 that he will impose a 10% customs duty on Chinese imports of 268 billion from September 1, prompting China to suspend purchases of the goods. North American agricultural

"Overall, we increased our estimate of the impact of the growth of the trade war," the bank said in the same note signed by three of its economists: Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips and David Mericle.

The United States has also declared China as a currency manipulator. China denies that it has manipulated the yuan for competitive gains. Goldman Sachs indicates that it has lowered its US growth forecast for the fourth quarter by 20 basis points to 1.8%. A greater than expected impact on the evolution of trade tensions between the two countries.



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