Millennium BCP's economic studies area considers that there are “significant risks” for the Portuguese economy in the coming quarters, which could call into question the Government's forecast for annual GDP growth of 1.9%.
In a note published Tuesday, following quarterly GDP data released by INE last Friday, the bank points out that Portugal is "in a context of intensifying risks of the global economic slowdown."
According to the document, the “loss of strength” of the most cyclical components of GDP – investment in capital goods and consumption of durable goods -, at the same time as “the signs of a slowdown in the tourism sector after several years. of strong expansion ”, may negatively affect the progress of the national economy.
“At the limit”, these risks “could jeopardize the fulfillment of the government's forecast of 1.9% year-on-year growth”.
In the second quarter, the Portuguese economy grew 1.8% year-on-year, maintaining the pace of the previous quarter. However, BCP points out, the composition of GDP differs “significantly” from the first quarter. "Investment, which in the first quarter increased by 14%, slowed to 6.1%," reflecting the slowdown in the machinery and equipment component and, to a lesser extent, construction. "
In turn, private consumption decelerated for the second consecutive quarter, “notably, the purchase of durable goods fell for the first time since mid-2013”.