Full time thawing of special careers, including teachers, magistrates, law enforcement and military personnel, would have an additional impact of € 398 million in net terms compared to the Government's macroeconomic scenario in the 2019-2023 Stability Program, estimates the Technical Unit for Budget Support (UTAO).
"The impact assessment carried out by UTAO in Annex 2 of this report to the extension for all special careers of the principle of full recovery of hours of service provided for remuneration progressions foresees a deterioration of 398 million euros in the budget balance and in the structural balance according to the analysis report sent by UTAO technicians to the Committee on Budget, Finance and Administrative Modernization (COFMA), which the Economic Journal had access to.
UTAO explains that as a percentage of potential GDP, the structural balance rises from 0.3% to 0.1%, which puts "public finances more exposed to failing the Medium Term Objective (MTO) rule." However, it anticipates that despite this deterioration "it will not prevent compliance with the budgetary rules" concerning the MTO.
"Full recovery of length of service in all special careers, with the phasing in the design of Measure 2, reduces structural surpluses in all years of the projection, although none falls below the Medium Term Objective (MTO) set for Portugal in the 2020-2022 triennium (and that is 0% of nominal potential GDP), "he adds.
In the analysis, the UTAO took as reference the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance regarding the gross wages of workers involved in a cruise year. "The total estimated impact on the expenditure resulting from Measure 2 increases until 2023, stabilizing this amount for future years," he adds. That is, in the 804 million euros, value in year cruise. In the calculations of the technicians, the net impacts amount to 567 million euros in 2023.
"Permanent increases in staff expenditure have effects both on the budget balance and on the structural budget balance," he points out.