Luís Marques Mendes, in his comments on SIC, commented the interview of Prime Minister António Costa this week, saying that confirms that this is the last budget of Mário Centeno.
One of the certainties of the interview of António Costa to TVI "is that Mário Centeno will leave and will not be in the next Government," said the commentator.
Where will Mario Renee go? The commentator said once again that he will go to one of two international positions: "or President of the next European Monetary Fund (a body to be created in the European Union); or European Commissioner, possibly being Vice-President of the Commission ".
Hence the other question that is who will replace Mario Centeno as minister of Finance? "I think it will be one of two people, or Mourinho Félix or Vieira da Silva," said Marques Mendes, who explained: "The former seems the obvious solution, since it is Mário Centeno's chief secretary of state. The second, for a reason that very few people know, and that is Vieira da Silva (current Minister of Labor) was the first choice of António Costa to Minister of Finance of the Government, when three years ago formed this solution of the Government, "revealed the commentator.
"Costa's Plan A was Vieira da Silva in Finance and Mário Centeno in Labor. Then there was an exchange. We can watch the return of this Plan A ", asked Marques Mendes.
After saying that Costa asked in TVI the absolute majority, Marques Mendes warned that the same problem for the PS is if it does not have an absolute majority. "This is going to be a huge shock for Costa and a serious problem for the PS. There, the most probable is to have a new minority government of the PS, that probably will not do the totality of the mandate. It may fall mid-term, even because of the economic slowdown. "
Conclusions of the Budget
"The first, from the point of view of the country, will be a budget with a historical mark – an OE of zero deficit," he said, remembering that it is a historical result in all of our democracy.
Then it's going to be a very popular budget, he said. "Pensioners, civil servants, public transport users in Greater Lisbon and Greater Porto (because social passes will go down) will like OE," he said. "From the political point of view it's an electoral bonus for the PS. It's one of the most electoral budgets ever. "
Marques Mendes says that of all measures, including IRS relief, the one that will contribute most to the absolute majority will be the reduction of the price of social passes, "he said.
"It's a nightmare for the opposition. If PSD and CDS criticize for the deficit, they are incoherent. If they criticize for the good, they become unpopular, "he said.
"This budget may not be sustainable in the future when the economy begins to cool down," the commentator said.
"The period we are living is very similar to the time of the first government of António Guterres 20 years ago: the government was also a minority; the economy was also growing; it was also "plate won, worn plate"; also the Government distributed money to everyone to try the absolute majority. Then it was the PS did not get the absolute majority; then came the swamp; Guterres left and then began the crisis that took all these years. "
"Can we do it today without having to go back tomorrow," he said.
Coast versus teachers
Concerning the open conflict between teachers and the Government, Marques Mendes says that "teachers are being victims of the irresponsibility of the Government and the radicalism of the unions".
"It was the Government that created this problem, when a year ago created this expectation. The Government promised what it knew was impossible to meet. The government was irresponsible, "he said, adding that they were also victims of the radicalism of the unions. "This is a major defeat of the unions." Faced with the irresponsibility of the Government, "the unions opted for everything or nothing, they acted the worst possible way. They did not want to negotiate a middle ground and with that they lost, "he said.
"They lost in public opinion, because nobody understands that teachers want to recover all the time of service when no professional class has recovered everything that lost in the time of the troika. And worse, they lost in the final decision. If the unions had been open negotiating, the teachers would eventually recover 4, 5 or even 6 years of service time, in stages. Until then the Government would agree to go. Thus, they only earn 2 years and a few months. Whoever wants everything loses everything. The teachers were harmed. "
On the case of the robbery of the Tancos weapons, and after the Expresso reported that the former spokesman of the Military Judiciary Police, Major Vasco Brazão, assured the investigating judge of the Tancos case to have informed Minister Azeredo Lopes of the mounted staging in Chamusca more than a month after the recovery of the weapons. In the judicial interrogation Vasco Brazão revealed that the Minister of Defense was informed of the staging by the Military Judiciary Police (PJM) together with the GNR of Loulé, regarding the recovery of the guns.
Speaking to journalists in Brussels, the minister said it was "completely false" that he was informed of this plan.
António Costa later said that he sees no reason to dismiss the defense minister. In this regard, Marques Mendes said that in these matters, "my orientation is very clear and coherent: when a Minister is under serious suspicion, he must do what António Vitorino did in the Guterres Government and Miguel Macedo in the Government of Passos Coelho, in the face of suspicion, took the initiative to leave, not clinging to places. It is not to take their blame but to defend the institutions they represent. not compromising their image and the image of the institutions they represent, places the public interest above personal interest.
"So I think Azeredo Lopes should leave or be invited to leave. For three essential reasons, first because Azeredo is now a minister under suspicion, soon diminished in his credibility, weakened and conditioned in his action, and the first proof that the Minister is diminished, conditioned and weakened was revealed the day before yesterday in the October 5, where the Minister got low, he missed the military ceremonies, not even accompanying the President of the Republic, "said Marques Mendes who argues that Azeredo Lopes must leave the Government.
"The second reason is that Azeredo Lopes is not a minister, he is the Minister of the Armed Forces. However, a serious suspicion of the Minister who "stewards" the Armed Forces does not only tarnish the image of the Minister and the Government. It also affects the image of the military institution. But the public interest must always be above personal, political and partisan interest, "he said.
Finally, he said, "there is a probability that, day after day, Azeredo Lopes will become accused."
Azeredo Lopes, in the perspective of Marques Mendes, must leave because "it is always better to leave first, by his foot, with freedom and dignity, than to leave later, pushed and already without dignity."