DBRS considers that Portuguese tourism will not fully recover this year, given the “particularly critical” health situation and the prolongation of restrictions, but the shock will be temporary and the country's attractiveness will remain in the post-pandemic.
In an analysis note on the tourism sector in Portugal, released today, the financial rating agency DBRS Morningstar anticipates “another difficult year” for the activity, given the seriousness of the global pandemic crisis (which in the country is in a “particularly "), the delay in making vaccines available in Europe and the prolongation of travel restrictions.
“Given the importance of the tourism sector to Portugal, this is likely to delay the country's full economic recovery”, considers.
Even so, DBRS maintains that “the shock of the covid-19 will be temporary and should not result in structural changes in the Portuguese tourism sector”: "Although this crisis will inevitably have serious consequences for many workers and companies, particularly those most exposed to the activity, tourism demand in Portugal should return to pre-pandemic levels", read in the analysis note.
According to the agency, “the characteristics that, before the crisis, made Portugal attractive to visitors globally will remain for a long time after the pandemic”.
In its analysis of the Portuguese tourism sector, DBRS recalls that, between 2010 and 2012, Portugal received an average of 14 million non-residents per year, with this number reaching 27 million people in 2019.
This almost doubling of tourist arrivals in less than a decade has allowed the tourist accommodation sector's revenues to almost triple, so that, at the end of the decade, tourism and related industries accounted for 17% of the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP), 19% of employment and 20% of total exports.
In 2020, impacted by the pandemic, Portugal registered 10.6 million tourists and, although domestic tourism allowed some recovery in the summer months, the lack of foreign visitors contributed significantly to the 7.6% economic contraction registered that year.
This year, the situation would worsen with the new wave of the pandemic, both in Portugal – which has become “one of the worst performing countries in Europe” – and in countries traditionally sending tourists to Portugal, such as the United Kingdom , Germany, Spain, France, Holland and Brazil.