What analysis does the statements made by Prime Minister António Costa?
The prime minister made the speech he had to make, demonstrating that the Government of the Socialist Party is consistent with what his program was, regardless of the agreements reached with the parties to his left.
With this dramatization, António Costa fundamentally places the Socialist Party, contrary to what many expected, in the place where it has always been. That is, a moderate center-left party that now poses a challenge to Parliament which, in the face of a negative coalition, will evidently precipitate early elections with its resignation.
The scenario of early elections will only increase uncertainty, since in the worst perspective, that is, of having early elections these are and will be little anticipated and fundamentally the political macroeconomic sector for 2019 is defined in the general budget of the State, which will not suffer fundamentally no change.
Faced with this negative coalition, the parties on the left of the Socialist Party are limited to being coherent with what they fundamentally have always advocated in relation to this specific issue of teachers. This poses a challenge to the right of the political spectrum that was already visible in Asunción Cristas' speech, which also launched this morning the challenge "let's go to elections, we are prepared for them", but now put in Rui Rio and the PSD faithful of the balance of this negative coalition, since the other parties in principle will maintain what they have already approved in the education commission.
But the unit in the so-called 'contraption' has not been weakened?
The unity of the contraption disappeared with the budget for 2019. With the scenario of two elections (European and legislative) it is natural that the three parties return to the usual demarcation. It should not be forgotten that these were parliamentary agreements and coalition dynamics. In the electoral year, the contraband was formally extinguished with the approval of the 2019 budget.
Can this ultimatum benefit the Government in the campaign for the next elections?
I can not say that. It's an exercise in astrology. What happens, without a doubt, opens up an increase of uncertainty about the electoral attitudes of the Portuguese in a crisis situation. One thing is certain: the election campaign for the European Parliament is over. Barring an unexpected solution to this problem, the first two pre-election weeks will be dominated by this threat of crisis and dismissal. This is the first consequence.
As for the attitude the important thing to emphasize is the uncertainty with an important point: for better or worse, the Socialist Party reinforced what is in fundamental the image that was getting a long of the contraption, because although with the support of the parties to its left , the truth is that there were no significant changes in social economic policy and in the speech of the Socialist Party.