which can not be lost in the economy and markets this week – The Economic Journal

Mário Centeno - The Economic Journal


Brexit: Exit agreement returns to British Parliament

Negotiations for Brexit continue this week after the European Council has agreed to an extension until May 22 if the House of Commons approves the exit agreement this week. If the agreement is not approved, the European Council agrees to extend it until 12 April 2019. In this case, European leaders say they expect "that the United Kingdom will indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council" . The vote comes after two British MPs jump to the agreement: one in January by a difference of 230 votes and another in March by a difference of 149 votes.

Deficit of 2018 should have been below the target of the Government

The week will be rich in the release of economic indicators, but all the attention is centered on the publication on Tuesday of data from the National Statistics Institute regarding the deficit last year. Finance Minister Mario Centeno revealed in February at a hearing in Parliament that the deficit will have closed the year close to 0.6%. However, a UTAO report points out that the deficit will have set at 0.4% of GDP. "If this estimate is confirmed, the result achieved in 2018 should have exceeded both the initial target of -1.1% of GDP set in OE / 2018 and the revised estimate of -0.7% of GDP presented by the Ministry of Finance in the Stability Program (PE / 2018-22) and subsequently confirmed in the State Budget Proposal for 2019 (POE / 2019), "points out UTAO. Also on this day Banco de Portugal (BdP) announces data on public debt last year.

Start of hearings in Parliament on the management of CGD

Parliamentary hearings are being held this week in the framework of the Second Commission for the Recapitalization of Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD) and the management of the bank, created after the disclosure of the audit report of EY to CGD management between 2000 and 2015 and concluded that there were losses of 1,647 million euros in 186 credit operations that turned out to be ruinous. According to EY 's Top 25 audit of the most ruinous credits, for a total of 1,263 million euros, it was between 2000 and 2007 that 78% of these operations were concentrated. The first hearing will take place on Tuesday 26, with the deputies hearing the clarifications of Erneste & Young. On Wednesday 27, the focus is on the clarifications of the Governor of the BOP, Carlos Costa, and on Wednesday, the 28th, the deputies will question the former Governor of the BOP, Vítor Constâncio.

DGO announces budget execution until February

The General Directorate of the Budget publishes Wednesday the report of the budgetary execution, of February. In the first month of the year, general government registered a budget surplus of EUR 1 542.1 million, reflecting an improvement of EUR 751 million over the same period last year (EUR 791.1 of revenue (10.4%) and a reduction of expenditure (-1.9%). Tax revenue increased by 12.8%, driven by higher revenues from VAT (15.9%), IRS (7.6%) and IRC (84.4%) due to the performance of the economy.



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