which can not be lost in the economy and markets this week – The Economic Journal

Trade war escalation leaves IMF more pessimistic about world economy - The Economic Journal


IMF to review low-growth world economy

This week, some of the world's most powerful economic leaders, entrepreneurs and civil society actors gather in Washington D.C, USA, for the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The sessions start on Monday and last until 14 days. The IMF will release the update of the world economic forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and last week, Christine Lagarde already signaled that the institution should re-cut the estimates of the growth of the world economy for this year. In January it pointed to an economic expansion of 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2020, minus 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) than in the forecast of October last year.

INE releases data on international trade

This Tuesday, the National Statistics Institute (INE) announces the statistics of international trade relative to February. According to data released in March, the statistical agency revealed that in January, Portuguese imports increased by 16.6% in January, year-on-year, boosted by transport material, which increased by 36.2%. On the other hand, Portuguese exports started the year slowing down to 4.1% year-on-year, with intra-European trade being the main driver of growth in the sale of goods abroad.

European leaders meet to discuss Brexit

The leaders of the 27 member states will meet on Wednesday to discuss the latest developments regarding Brexit. The meeting was convened by European Council President Donald Tusk on 29 March following the vote in the House of Commons and after 21 March European leaders decided to postpone the date of Brexit to 12 April 2019 should the exit agreement be rejected. British Prime Minister Theresa May has called for a postponement of the UK exit date for June 30 and has begun negotiations with the Labor Party on Friday, but has not yet achieved results.

IGCP wants to issue up to 1 billion euros in long-term debt

The IGCP – Treasury and Public Debt Management Agency is to hold two ten-year and 18-year Treasury Bond auctions on Wednesday, with an overall indicative amount between 750 million and 1,000 million euros. The agency led by Cristina Casalinho indicates that OT lines have maturity in June 2029 (OT 1.95% June 15, 2029) and April 2037 (OT 4.1% April 15, 2037). In the last 10-year auction, on March 13, Portugal sold 862 million euros in ten-year debt, having paid an allocation rate of 1.298%, the lowest ever.

No surprise, ECB should keep the tone

The European Central Bank meets this week and no changes are expected in the direction of monetary policy. At the last meeting, Frankfurt cut the forecasts for economic expansion in the euro zone this year and in 2020, with Mario Draghi noting that the reduction in the projection was "substantial." The central bank expects the single currency economy to grow by 1.1% this year (compared to 1.7% expected in December) and 1.6% by 2020. The Board of Governors also announced that it will launch a new series of long-term loans to banks, with the aim of increasing liquidity in the euro area. These refinancing operations will be launched in September 2019, ending in March 2021.



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